Zhou Dasheng (002867): 1H19 performance expected brand and moderate continuous fermentation

Zhou Dasheng (002867): 1H19 performance expected brand and moderate continuous fermentation

Event: Revenue in the first half of 201923.

90 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

51%; net profit attributable to mother 4.

7.5 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.

63%; net profit of non-attributed mothers4.

430,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

13%.

Gross profit margin and net profit margin were 37.

73% / 19.

88%, ten years +3.

15ppts / + 3.

27ppts.

Single-quarter revenue for the second quarter of 201912.

92 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

92%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

810,000 yuan, an increase of 46 in ten years.

16%.

Performance expectations.

The company’s first-half performance forecast is expected to regain the advantage of brand concentration.

In the first half of 2019, the company self-operated offline and online, and its franchise business achieved operating income6.

6.1 billion, 2.

2.2 billion, 13.

8.4 billion, accounting for 27 of total revenue.

66%, 9.

30%, 57.

94%.

The offline self-operated revenue exceeded the growth rate by about 8.

17%, online self-employment revenue growth rate of 34 in ten years.

71%, the annual growth rate of franchise business is about 8.

72%.

In terms of products, it means that jewelry accounts for 54.

25%, but the expressway increased speed in the first half of the year.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s gold jewelry and embedded jewelry realized operating income7.

04 billion, 12.

9.6 billion, accounting for 29.

49%, 54.

25%.

Revenue growth of prime gold jewelry is about 21.39%, indicating that the revenue growth rate of jewelry is 3.

55%.

The company’s gross profit margin increased significantly and the supporting expense ratio decreased, gradually increasing the growth rate of net profit and accelerating the first half of 2019. The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin were 37 respectively.

73% / 19.

88%, +3 each year.

15ppts / + 3.

27ppts.
At the same time, the company’s sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and financial 杭州夜生活网 expense ratio are 10 respectively.

82% / 2.

40% / 0.

19%, -0 per year.

41% /-0.

06% / 0.

00%.

The improvement of the company’s gross profit margin combined with the increase in the three types of expense ratios gradually realized that the company’s net profit growth rate was higher than the revenue growth rate.

The situation of the exhibition store gradually recovered, the inventory pressure needs to be eased, and the same store growth situation is expected to further improve.

The company opened a net of 224 stores in the first half of 2019 and a net opening of 142 stores in the second quarter. We expect the possibility of a net opening of 400-500 stores in the future.

The company’s self-operated single store operating income in the first half of the year was approximately 222.

580,000 yuan, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.

15%, single store gross profit is about 70.

260,000 yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.

7%; franchise business single store operating income is about 43.

10,000 yuan, down 12 every year.

13%, single store gross profit is about 16.

0.7 million yuan, down 5 every year.

63%.

With the rise in the price of gold and the gradual release of sales momentum, the company’s single store performance will gradually increase, and inventory pressure will ease.

At the same time, the trend of centralization of third- and fourth-tier brands has also improved inventory conditions and reduced inventory turnover days.

Profit forecast and investment rating: The company will continue to benefit from the increased concentration of brands in low-tier cities, and promote franchisees to actively open at the bottom to continue to improve gross margins and reduce expense ratios.

In the future, through the rebound in consumption, the return will lead to a significant recovery in terminal sales growth.

We expect EPS for 2019-21 to be 1.

46/1.

78/2.

16 yuan, PE is 15/12 / 10x.

Risk warning: The condition of the exhibition shop is worse than expected, the sales of jewelry are worse than expected, and the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry are not growing as fast as expected.

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