The gap between the three major indexes has widened. Who is the real driver of the structural bull market?
Favorable policies, a certain technology stock will become a new outlet?
Come to Sina University of Finance and listen to the opening column of the Trading Day Financial Morning Post.
The gap between the three major indexes has widened!
Trillion turnover, who is the real driver of the structural bull market?
Fei Tianyuan’s “fast” and “differentiation” are the two major characteristics of this round of rebound market after the Spring Festival.
From February 4 to 21, the 深圳桑拿按摩 Shanghai Composite Index gradually increased by 10.
67%, the SZSE Component Index has gradually increased by 18.
92%, GEM refers to a gradual increase23.
Just in the middle of last Friday, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index hit a new high of more than four years, and the ChiNext Index broke a new high of more than three and a half years.
The turnover of the two cities has now stood above 1 trillion for three consecutive trading days.
Just as there are differences in the rise of several major indexes, although this round of rally has generally risen, it also has structural differentiation.
From February 4 to 21, the two major technology sectors, including Shenwan Computer and Electronics, increased by 32.
14% and 26.
15%, the highest increase in the first two industries.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industry ranked third, with an overall increase of 25.
06%; the communications industry ranks fourth, with an overall growth of 23.
Under the ranking, the overall growth of Shenwan Banking Industry was 4.
10%, the bottom of the ranking.
The food and beverage industry as a whole rose by 11.
09%, the pharmaceutical and biological industry as a whole rose by 9.
51%, both in the middle and lower reaches.
From this point of view, the obvious strengthening of technology stocks is a significant feature of this round of rebound.
In the past two years, the consumer stocks and weighted financial stocks that have consistently outperformed the broader market have recently performed relatively modestly.
Many investors can’t help but ask, what funds came into the market, driving this round of “structure bull” market that has risen so fast and technology stocks dominate?
Northbound capital inflows but the focus is not on technology stocks. Since the interconnectedness of technology stocks in 2014, the cumulative net purchases of Northbound funds for A shares have exceeded US $ 1 trillion, and its investment style that is biased toward “value” has also changed to a certain extent.The ecology of the A-share market.
It has a significant leading role in the blue chip sector represented by large consumption.
This round of rally has so far continued, the overall trend of northbound funds continued to grow, and in practice has obvious characteristics of low absorption.
From February 3 to 21, Northbound funds gradually bought 409.
Among them, when the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by nearly 8% on February 3, Northbound funds made a net purchase of 18.2 billion against the trend throughout the day, making it the second largest single-day net purchase in history.
And through the index bottoming out, the size of the inflow of northbound funds began to fall, and there was a net penetration for a few days.
In terms of individual stocks, consumption and blue chip stocks in the financial sector are still the focus of Northbound funds in the near future.
As of February 21, the top eight stocks in Northbound Funds were all consumer and financial products, and Guizhou Moutai, Gree Electric Appliances, Hengrui Medicine, and Ping An Bank all increased their shareholdings after the Spring Festival.
But at the same time, the recent rising technology stocks are not the focus of Northbound funds.
As of February 21, of the top 20 heavy stocks in Northbound funds, only Hikvision and Lixun Precision had two technology stocks, and the number of Northbound funds holdings of these two technology stocks declined after the Spring Festival.
Among them, Hikvision’s northbound funds held from 5 shares.6.4 billion shares are expected5.
1.5 billion shares, down 8%.
Of the top 20 heavy stocks, 73% is the stock with the largest decline in the number of shares held during the same period.
From this point of view, although the northward capital continued to transition after the Spring Festival, the type of increasing positions is not the leading technology stock in the market, and even some technology stocks have reduced their rallies.
The scale of financing funds’ return to expansion is far less than that in 2015. As a representative of high-risk expected funds, the investment of financing funds into the market has a significant role in boosting growth.
Especially in the SME market in the first half of 2015, the financing balance of the two cities started from 400 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014 and expanded all the way to a high point in June 20152.
During this period, the average financing surplus of Oriental Fortune, UFIDA and other stocks expanded nearly 10 times, and the corresponding stocks have also skyrocketed several times.
Back to this year, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the financing balance of the two cities was at a low of 10140 on the replacement stage on February 4.
Since then, the conversion market has warmed up, and financing funds have quickly resumed. On February 20, the financing balance of the two cities rose to 10,755.
9.8 billion yuan, close to the level of early 2018.
From February 5 to 20, the financing balance of the two cities increased by approximately 6.15 million yuan in 12 trading days.
Looking back at the bull market in 2015, even in the initial stage of the bull market in the fourth quarter of 2014, the daily increase in the financing balance of the two cities can reach more than 26 billion US dollars.100 million yuan.
From this point of view, the financing balance of the two cities has recently returned, and the focus of financing funds to increase positions is also around technology stocks (Guoxuan High-tech, Inspur Information, TCL Technology, etc.).
However, in terms of expansion scale, it is still far below the 2015 bull market level.
Hot money activity has increased but persistent doubts Hot money is also a higher-risk participating group, and the operating style is biased to chase up and down.
If the hot money activity increases, it will boost the market’s short-term money-making effect. The most iconic phenomenon is the increase in the number of stocks on the daily limit of the two cities.
From February 4 to 21, the daily average daily limit of the two cities reached 143 (including A and B shares, the same below).
Under the ranking, although the three major stock indexes have risen collectively in 2019, the average daily limit is only 66.
The daily average daily limit in 2018 was only 47.
In addition, the number of stocks in the two cities has increased significantly in recent years.
For example, Tesla’s concept stock Xiuqiang shares, its merger in the last 14 trading days harvested 12 ups and downs, and gradually increased by 205%.
The Central Pharmaceuticals Army also once gained ten consecutive boards.
The data of the Dragon and Tiger list disclosed by the exchange shows that long-term veteran hot money seats have recently noticed the return of several and are heavily invested in the market.
Such as China Galaxy Securities Shaoxing Sales Department, the total turnover of this seat on the list since February 4 has reached 36.
2.8 billion, ranking third in all sales departments.
And throughout January, China Galaxy Securities Shaoxing Sales Department listed only 22 transactions.
1.3 billion yuan.
In terms of specific stocks, China Galaxy Securities Shaoxing Sales Department recently listed on the list of participating stocks including Ningde Times, Jingfang Technology, TCL Technology, etc., which have unique technology leaders.
However, due to the short-term operating mode of hot money, the style also tends to chase up and down, so the continuity of hot money entry is always in doubt.
For example, in the first half of last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose from 2440 points to 3288 points. At that time, the activity of hot money also significantly increased. China Life Insurance, CITIC Construction Investment and other popular stocks also appeared on the top of the long list of hot stocks.Figure.
However, the conversion index and related stocks peaked, and some of the hot money evacuated as soon as possible and returned to silence.
From this point of view, the recent significant increase in the activity of hot money has indeed driven related technology stocks into a stronger.
However, the continuity of hot money’s subsequent entry remains to be seen, and the short-term operating mode of hot money chasing up and killing is difficult to drive the market to continue to heat up.
The emergence of explosive funds constitutes an important support for technology stocks and has returned to the market environment, and explosive funds have recently appeared again.
At the beginning of this year, BOCOM’s kernel-driven hybrid distribution has attracted more than 50 billion yuan a day, becoming the first explosive fund in 2020.
Subsequently, Penghua’s technological innovation mix, and Hongde Fengrun’s three-year holding period were also sold out in one day.
The scale of the first subscription of Guangfa Technology Pioneer, which was managed by last year’s public performance champion Liu Gezheng, was more than US $ 90 billion, and it was finally confirmed that it would share US $ 8 billion.
On February 18th, Chen Guangming’s Ruiyuan Fund’s second public offering product, Ruiyuan’s balanced value three-year holding period, the hybrid fund easily reached the $ 6 billion initial fundraising scale, triggering a proportional placement, and the total subscription amount was about 120 billion, creating a domestic public fundThe highest subscription record in history, the final placement ratio may be about 5%. On February 20, the China Post Technology Innovation Hybrid Fund went on sale for just over an hour, which meant that it had over $ 1.5 billion in subscriptions.
As of 15:00 on the day, the fund’s total subscription size exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the proportion placement was started.
According to the Zhang Qiyao strategy team of Guosheng Securities, 22 stock funds, 43 hybrid funds, and 8 bond funds were established in the market this year, with a total size of 241.
400 million, 1023.
0 billion and 47.
800 million yuan.
In terms of individual stocks, a large number of star funds held leading positions in the alternative technology field of heavy stocks, and related products have performed very well in this round of structural bull market.
For example, last year’s public fundraising champion Liu Gezhen managed Guangfa’s innovative upgrade and flexible configuration mix. At the end of last year, the top five heavy stocks of the fund were Kangtai Bio, Sanan Optoelectronics, Shengbang Stock, ZTE and China Software. These five stocks have been available since February 4.All outperformed the Shanghai Stock Index, San’an Optoelectronics, Shengbang Co., Ltd., and China Software’s incremental increase was more than 30%.
Zhang Qiyao believes that from the perspective of current institutional positions, technological growth is the focus of new fund allocation.
In particular, since the early days, a number of science and technology theme funds have been centrally issued and established, which have become important “promoters” for the technology growth sector.
From the demand side, “buying funds” is becoming an important channel for residents’ funds to enter A shares and constitute an important support for 夜来香体验网 technology growth stocks.
According to the official data released by Alipay, more and more users choose online financial management. After the Spring Festival, the daily fund purchase transactions on Alipay have increased by about 400%.